美轮美换 The American Roulette

Baihua Media

一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客

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美轮美换 The American Roulette

Episodes (97)

Sunday 092 | 中期选举初选：特朗普背书破功，民主党现任失守 Midterm Primary Results
Sun Aug 16th 091 | 2026高院判决盘点：法理左右互搏，对特朗普“小骂大帮忙” 2026 Supreme Court Rulings
Jul 21st 090 | 格雷厄姆死了，伊朗战争又活了 Graham is gone, the Iran war is back again

美轮美换 The American Roulette

Aug 23, 2026
2 hours
62 MB

【聊了什么】 2026年中期选举初选进入尾声，两党的结果已经打破了不少看似稳固的判断。特朗普仍然牢牢影响共和党，但他亲自背书的候选人在多场关键初选中接连落败；民主党则有七名现任众议员倒在党内挑战者手下。特朗普的背书在哪些地方仍然有效？现任优势又为什么正在民主党内部失灵？本期我们从密歇根、威斯康星和明尼苏达的选举结果谈起，讨论民主党建制派、进步派与民主社会主义者围绕“可当选性”、巴以议题、族裔代表和党内资源展开的路线之争。我们也分析了初选民调为什么会大幅失准：投票人群的构成、最后时刻的势头、竞选资金与组织能力，怎样让看似稳固的领先在投票日突然消失。我们也讨论了可能决定参议院控制权的大选地图：德州、密歇根、缅因、俄亥俄、阿拉斯加、佐治亚、北卡和爱荷华，哪些是真正可能翻盘的战场，哪些只有在浪潮选举中才会出现意外？2026年的中期选举不只是红蓝之间的较量，也是两党内部关于谁能代表自己、谁能真正赢下大选的争夺。本期节目录制于8月16日。【支持我们】如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ 会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com 【时间轴】 00:35 开场：进入2026年中期选举初选盘点 05:11 特朗普背书破功，共和党掌控力出现松动 12:23 七名民主党现任众议员为何输掉党内初选 19:10 密歇根与威斯康星：进步派、建制派与“可当选性” 40:24 明尼苏达与民主社会主义者的扩张 43:16 初选民调为什么接连失准 48:24 德州与密歇根：参议院争夺的两种难题 55:31 缅因州：Susan Collins 还能守住席位吗 58:37 俄亥俄州：Sherrod Brown 的翻盘机会 1:06:00 阿拉斯加：同名候选人与排序复选的变量 1:12:16 佐治亚与北卡：民主党为什么领先稳固 1:16:53 爱荷华：地方议题能否撬动红州 1:22:13 蒙大拿、内布拉斯加与堪萨斯的冷门可能 1:25:54 Fetterman 与参议院控制权的关键一票【我们是谁】美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。本期的主播和嘉宾：王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子小华：媒体人【 What We Talked About】 The 2026 midterms have not yet entered their final stretch, but the party primaries have already upended several assumptions that once seemed settled. Donald Trump still holds considerable sway over the Republican Party, yet several candidates he personally endorsed have lost key primaries. Meanwhile, seven incumbent House Democrats were defeated by challengers from within their own party. Where does Trump’s endorsement still carry weight? And why is the advantage of incumbency breaking down among Democrats? We examine the results in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, focusing on the struggle among the Democratic establishment, progressives, and democratic socialists over electability, Israel and Palestine, racial representation, and party resources. We also explore why primary polling missed the mark so badly: how turnout composition, late momentum, campaign spending, and organizing capacity can make an apparently secure lead disappear on Election Day. We also survey the Senate map that could determine control of the chamber, including Texas, Michigan, Maine, Ohio, Alaska, Georgia, North Carolina, and Iowa. Which races present genuine opportunities to flip a seat, and which would become competitive only in a wave election? The 2026 midterms are not simply a contest between red and blue. They are also an internal struggle over who represents each party and who can actually win a general election. This episode was recorded on August 16. 【Support Us】 If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following: Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/ Supp

美轮美换 The American Roulette

092 | 中期选举初选：特朗普背书破功，民主党现任失守 Midterm Primary Results

Baihua Media

00:00 -01:30:09